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I'm sorry to have to inform you: we're not about to see a change in Digital Content as we know it tonight.

On what do I base this hypothesis? Well, the problem with those claiming that the iTablet (or whatever Apple will announce tonight) will redefine how people use digital content is the example of iTunes Music Store. They claim that Apple will do for newspapers and other content what they already did for music. The problem with this theory - or where the theory is absolutely correct - is that Apple HASN'T revolutionised music.

The music industry found itself with a problem. Suddenly the internet had allowed savvy users to get music without going through the traditional - paid - channels. Perhaps they'd never be persuaded again to pay for music rather than just nicking it? The industry was worried, but try as they might, they couldn't launch a music service that would entice their listeners to buy music online. Then along came iTunes and (the story goes) suddenly they'd all buy music again.

So - what's the problem with this? Well - firstly - the simple fact is that users AREN'T buying as much music. In fact, the industry is complaining that Apple has destroyed the album - listeners just buy the singles and save the money they'd have had to spend on the rest. But what's the problem here? What's going on? Well, I think it's pretty simple: listeners are able to get the bits they want, and miss the rest. The problem for the industry wasn't that people weren't paying for the music they wanted - it's that they weren't paying for the music they didn't!

Arguably, iTunes HAS revolutionised app buying. The iPhone has proven that we can persuade people to pay small amounts for little, single purpose application, and this is certainly a first. The problem with this also pertains to iTunes music: it's simply the case that not that many people are doing it!

Yes. I know you have an iPhone, buy music online and need the latest app. But the fact is, that you're the exception. VERY few people have iPhones, and the reason Nokia isn't the biggest seller of mobile apps is that their users aren't credit-card happy and gadget-obsessed. But you know what? They do buy newspapers and books, and (yes, it will happen someday!) they aren't going to buy a Kindle or an iTablet, no matter how much of their content it can allow them to take with them.

The problem for the content industry is the same as for the music industry. It's not that they're too close to their consumers, and that they need another aggregator in between themselves and their users: it's that they're too far away. The New York Times has problems with the commoditisation of news - and forcing people to pay them if they want to read it will just push them elsewhere.

We'll see what Apple has in store (pun intended) to persuade people to pay for stuff they're used to getting for free.